Air quality and climate effects in low income countries: from observations to policy in a post-COP21 world

Conveners: Örjan Gustafsson and August Andersson, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES) and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University

Contact: august.andersson@aces.su.se

Health- and climate affecting anthropogenic substances in the air brings a multitude of environmental implications. Low income countries are probably the most vulnerable for the plethora of effects. However, a correct assessment of these effects, including the development of a science-based mitigation policy, is typically limited by scarce observations in these regions. Due to several factors, atmospheric observational programs in these regions are often strongly dependent on the contributions from international researchers, showing a dependency on North- South relations. In a second step, implementation of mitigation policy is often complicated by economic, social and political complexity in these countries. Local observations of atmospheric constituents, coupled to assessments of social effects, e.g., estimated mortality from air pollution, are likely to serve as a firm basis for local policy action. In addition, addressing the complexity resulting from the consequences of local vs global emissions of different atmospheric constituents - contrasting long-lived species like CO2 with more short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) from incomplete combustion such as particulate matter and methane – needs local observational constraints to assess local climate effects, such as on rainfall, draughts, flooding, haze, and seasonal cycles, as well as possibilities for climate change adaptation vs prevention.

In this panel the needs for observational networks, ongoing observations and results as well implications for policy will be addressed. In particular, the role of north-south collaborations, and Sweden’s role for reducing atmospheric pollution in developing countries will be discussed in the light of recent international agreements, e.g., the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris and the UN Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) from 2015.

Session A: 22 Aug., 16:00–17:30, Seminar Room Y11

• Air Pollution: Time For Phase-Out Has Finally Arrived. Veerabhadran Ramanathan, University of California at San Diego.
• Air Pollution in Kenya: Knowledge Contribution by INST and Experienced Challenges. Michael J. Gatari Gichuru, University of Nairobi.
• Remote tropical troposphere aerosol properties observed at high altitude stations in Venezuela and Bolivia, South America. Radovan Krejci, Stockholm University; Tina Schmeisser, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research; Johan Ström, Stockholm University; Alfred Wiedensohler, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research; Thomas Hamburger, Norwegian Institute for Air Research; Silvia Calderon, Universidad de Los Andes; Paolo Laj, University of Grenoble; Marcos Andrade, Universidad Mayor San Andres; Fernando Velarde, Universidad Mayor San Andres and Isabel Moreno, Universidad Mayor San Andres.
• PM2.5 fine aerosol particles from long-range transport vs local sources over northern Indian Ocean: the Maldives. Hameed Zahid, Maldives Meteorological Service; August Andersson, Stockholm University; Krishnakant Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo and Örjan Gustafsson, Stockholm University.

Session B: 23 Aug., 11:00–12:30, Seminar Room Y11

• Air pollution: a major environmental and societal problem in Nepal. Maheswar Rupakheti, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies.
• Sources, transformations and sinks of black carbon aerosols at two South Asian receptor observatories. K. B. Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo; A. Andersson, Stockholm University; P. S. P. Rao, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; P. D. Safai, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; C. Leck, Stockholm University and Ö. Gustafsson, Stockholm University.
• Long-term record of connections between aerosols and weather at Hanimadhoo, Maldives. J, Kesti, Finnish Meteorological Institute; E. Asmi, Finnish Meteorological Institute; E. J. O’Connor, Finnish Meteorological Institute; H. Lihavainen, Finnish Meteorological Institute; Ö. Gustafsson, Stockholm University and K. Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo.
• Brown Clouds over South and East Asia: scientific needs with an emphasis on credible verification of both emission inventories and claims of mitigated emissions. Örjan Gustafsson, Stockholm University; August Andersson, Stockholm University; Srinivas Bikkina, Stockholm University; Wenzheng Fang, Stockholm University; Sanjeev Dasari, Stockholm University; Henry Holmstrand, Stockholm University; Abdus Salam, University of Dhaka; Imdad Shovon, University of Dhaka; Krishnakant Budhvant, Maldives Climate Observatory and Hameed Zahid, Maldives Meteorological Services.

Abstracts

Air Pollution: Time For Phase-Out Has Finally Arrived. Veerabhadran Ramanathan, University of California at San Diego.

We have known about the damaging environmental, ecosystem and public health effects of air pollution since the first half of the twentieth century. But research done in the last two decades has revealed the multi-dimensional aspects of air pollution. Particles and gases in air pollution cause over 7 million deaths annually; destroys over 100 million tons of crops; increases acidity of soil; leads to large scale dimming; reduces monsoon rainfall; leads to melting of arctic sea ice and glaciers and even shifting the inter tropical convergence zone…. the large scale weather pattern that governs tropical rainfall.  Amongst the most insidious of the various pollutants in air pollution, sulphates and black carbon deserve to be on the top of the list. Sulfates contribute to acidity, to the PM2.5 which is the metric for health effects of air pollution, large scale dimming and drying of the planet. Black Carbon is a major contributor to health effects; the second largest contributor to global warming; and is also the second largest contributor to melting of glaciers and sea ice. Air pollution is mostly caused by fossil fuel consumption. The largest manmade contributor to black carbon and organic carbon aerosols is cooking with biomass and solid fuels such as coal by the poorest three billion in the world. The other major source of air pollution is open burning of crop waste and Savanna. The domain of air pollution has shifted from the western industrialized world during the 20th century to tropical developing nations in the 21st.  It is frequently claimed that getting rid of air pollution will hurt the economy. The California example clearly disputes this claim. From the 1950 until now, California has reduced its emissions of black carbon, ozone precursors by as much as 90%, while its fossil fuel consumption grew by 200% and it population increased by 100% and its economy grew to be the strongest (measured by GDP) in the USA. Likewise, western European nations have markedly reduced their sulfate emissions significantly.   Clearly, Air Pollution is a global problem requiring global cooperation and technical support.  Air pollution abatement also has huge potentials to alleviate poverty. Provision of clean energy access to the Bottom Three Billion will not only eliminate the largest sources of black and organic carbon but will also have the largest health benefits by avoiding as many as 4 million premature deaths every year.

Air Pollution in Kenya: Knowledge Contribution by INST and Experienced Challenges. Michael J. Gatari Gichuru, University of Nairobi.

The negative Impact of air pollution in Kenya is better appreciated by historical physical observations of the Mount Kenya Ecosystem besides other high altitude scenes in the region. The mountaintop was once covered by a persistent and extensive white icecap throughout the year. Today that icecap is no more than scattered white patches, which can only be seen at closer distances to the mountain.  The rivers that originate from that key source of fresh water in Kenya have since degraded to less than half of the water they carried in 1960’s and 70’s. Besides those observations rural-urban migration was growing very fast in tandem with high population growth. The consequences have been fast increasing on road vehicles and trucks, carrying transit goods destined to neighboring countries and therefore deteriorating urban air quality.  These resulted in our requesting our Sweden colleagues to join us in studying air quality in Kenya and exploiting INST research capacity building support by International Science Programme at Uppsala University. However, the funds could only support short sampling campaigns and the longest assessment ever accomplished funded by Gothenburg-INST collaboration (Gaita et al., 2014). Observations from the short studies revealed high levels of PM2.5 at 1.5 m above ground level implying serious human health implications while the measured gases and SLCPs were no better with regard to human health and climate change implications. However long term monitored concentrations of air pollutants will open up studies towards sickness and hospitalization cases while climate studies and policy will benefit substantially.

Remote tropical troposphere aerosol properties observed at high altitude stations in Venezuela and Bolivia, South America. Radovan Krejci, Stockholm University; Tina Schmeisser, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research; Johan Ström, Stockholm University; Alfred Wiedensohler, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research; Thomas Hamburger, Norwegian Institute for Air Research; Silvia Calderon, Universidad de Los Andes; Paolo Laj, University of Grenoble; Marcos Andrade, Universidad Mayor San Andres; Fernando Velarde, Universidad Mayor San Andres and Isabel Moreno, Universidad Mayor San Andres.

Study of the physico-chemical properties of the tropical free tropospheric aerosol over seasonal time scales during period from March 2007 to March 2009 in Venezuela and from 2012 in Bolivia will be presented. Observations were carried out at high altitude station Alexander von Humboldt, Pico Espejo, Merida, Venezuela located on top of the mountain range the Cordillera of Merida at 4775 masl (8o31´N, 71o3´W) and at Chacaltaya GAW station in Bolivia 16°21'S and 68°07'W (5240 masl). Uniqueness of these stations is not only in the high altitude, but also the fact that the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates seasonally between both stations. This gives an opportunity to observe in-situ differences in aerosol properties between more polluted Northern Hemisphere and relatively cleaner Southern Hemisphere as well as contribution from different sources including biomass burning and natural biogenic aerosols from Amazon Basin, long-range transported Saharan dust and pollution outbreaks from the Northern Hemisphere. Only comparable in-situ measurements in tropics have been so far obtained only in a form of temporal snapshots during various airborne campaigns. Besides scientific focus, this presentation will summarize experience in collaboration with universities and academia in Venezuela and Bolivia together with ideas for efficient support of collaboration with low-income countries and capacity-building.

PM2.5 fine aerosol particles from long-range transport vs local sources over northern Indian Ocean: the Maldives. Hameed Zahid, Maldives Meteorological Service; August Andersson, Stockholm University; Krishnakant Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo and Örjan Gustafsson, Stockholm University.

Due to the emission of pollutants, severe air pollution problems exist in developing world, in particular in South Asia. This has gained lots of attention due to health and climate effects. Pollutants or particulate matter originating from the South Asian landmass can be transported many hundreds-thousands of kilometers away from the source region even all the way to the Maldives(south Indian Ocean). In addition to the pollutants from main-land of South Asia, local emissions also can influence air pollution in the Maldives. The local contributions to the load of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Maldivian capital Male’ was assessed using data collected during full-year synoptic campaign in 2013 at both Male’ and Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo. The annual average PM2.5 level in Male’ are higher (ave 19 μg/m3) than at MCOH (avg 13 μg/m3) with the difference being the largest during the summer, when the local emissions play a larger role. This study shows that in the dry/winter season 90 ± 11% of PM2.5 levels in Male’ could be from long-range transport with only 8 ± 11% from local emissions and relative contributions of wet/monsoon season are about equal. Relative contribution of total carbonaceous matter to that of bulk mass PM2.5 was 17% in Male’ and 13% at MCOH, suggesting larger contributions from incomplete combustion particles in the Male’ local region. Further research is needed on air quality, focusing on vulnerable small island nations such as the Maldives, in relation to potential future climate conditions and their influence on health so that control strategies for key pollutants can be developed.

Air pollution: a major environmental and societal problem in Nepal. Maheswar Rupakheti, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies.

New scientific evidences show that Nepal is affected by growing local and transboundary air pollution, especially from the Indo-Gangetic plains, one of the most heavily populated and most polluted regions of the world. Kathmandu Valley has notorious air pollution, considered as one of the most polluted cities in the world. IASS led the SusKat-ABC campaign in Nepal in 2013, the second largest international air pollution measurement campaign ever conducted in South Asia. The results show that particulate matter, black carbon, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and other key pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions are all dangerously high, often comparable to that in megacities Beijing and Delhi. Air pollution is a major environmental and societal problem in Nepal. It is the top-most environmental health risk, and also linked to a multitude of other adverse effects on crops, ecosystems, sensitive Himalayan cryosphere, weather and climate, as well as on the built environment. It will remain as a major environmental challenge over the next few decades if the current policies and practices are not steered towards supporting widespread and early implementation of appropriate science-based clean solutions that fit into local context. Although there are still many details that do need further scientific investigation, the basic scientific evidence is sufficiently clear as to where action is needed, and it is indisputable that actions taken to reduce emissions can save lives, enhance food and energy security, combat climate change, and more broadly, address socio-economic issues and help achieve sustainable development in Nepal.

Sources, transformations and sinks of black carbon aerosols at two South Asian receptor observatories. K. B. Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo; A. Andersson, Stockholm University; P. S. P. Rao, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; P. D. Safai, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; C. Leck, Stockholm University and Ö. Gustafsson, Stockholm University.

It is important to constrain the relative contribution to atmospheric black carbon (BC) from fossil fuel versus biomass combustion as fossil BC is a stronger climate forcer per unit mass. The source apportionment is also the underpinning for targeted mitigation actions. A year-round 14C-based source apportionment of elemental carbon (EC), the mass-based correspondent to BC, was performed at two regional receptor sites of Hanimaadhoo, Maldives and the mountaintop observatory at Sinhagad, India (SINH). The observation-based constraint demonstrated near-equal contributions from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion at both sites. This compares with predictions from eight technology-based emission inventory (EI) models for India of (fbio)EI spanning 55-88%, suggesting that most current EI for Indian BC systematically under predict the relative contribution of fossil fuel combustion. Significant correlations were observed between OC (organic carbon) and EC both at Hanimaadhoo (r2 = 0.79) and at SINH (r2 = 0.34). These co-varying patterns suggested that the ambient concentration levels of carbonaceous constituents were controlled largely by processes such as primary source emissions and atmospheric dispersion rather than by secondary OC formation. We also measured BC from ground-based wet-only rainwater (RW) and cloud-water (CW) samples at SINH. The average concentration of BC in RW (16 µmol dm3) is higher by at least a factor of 2 than that found in similar studies reported from other parts of the world. On the other hand, the average concentration of BC in CW (47 µmol dm3) is lower by about a factor of 2 than that found at other sites. These simultaneous measurements have made it possible to calculate the washout ratio of BC (1800) in rain.

Long-term record of connections between aerosols and weather at Hanimadho, Maldives. J, Kesti, Finnish Meteorological Institute; E. Asmi, Finnish Meteorological Institute; E. J. O’Connor, Finnish Meteorological Institute; H. Lihavainen, Finnish Meteorological Institute; Ö. Gustafsson, Stockholm University and K. Budhavant, Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimaadhoo.

Extreme weather phenomena and the various impacts of climate change such as sea level rise are a major threat to many tropical countries, including the Maldives. Many previous modelling and satellite-based studies have shown that aerosol particles can induce significant impacts on many weather and climate-related phenomena, such as large-scale circulation, atmospheric humidity and turbulence, cloud evolution and cloud properties, and the incoming solar radiation. Here we use a decade-long time-series of in-situ aerosol and weather-related parameters available from the Maldives Climate Observatory at Hanimadhoo (MCOH) to study these connections. The weather in the Maldives is very seasonal with distinct patterns in the wind flow regime for monsoon and dry seasons. Our results show a clear impact of the seasonal monsoon on aerosol numbers, sizes and their columnar quantity. The Monsoon index and its year-to-year variability thereby play a role in the overall air pollution situation at Maldives. In addition to the monsoon, the circulation pattern produces an outflow from the Indian continent in the dry season, which manifests itself as high aerosol concentration over the Maldives. Our current area of focus is a more specific characterization of this high pollution aerosol during the dry season. 

Brown Clouds over South and East Asia: scientific needs with an emphasis on credible verification of both emission inventories and claims of mitigated emissions. Örjan Gustafsson, Stockholm University; August Andersson, Stockholm University; Srinivas Bikkina, Stockholm University; Wenzheng Fang, Stockholm University; Sanjeev Dasari, Stockholm University; Henry Holmstrand, Stockholm University; Abdus Salam, University of Dhaka; Imdad Shovon, University of Dhaka; Krishnakant Budhvant, Maldives Climate Observatory and Hameed Zahid, Maldives Meteorological Services.

The effects from our emissions of climate-perturbing gases and aerosols are evident all the way from the tropics to the North Pole. We are the first generation to be broadly aware of these consequences yet the last generation able to turn global development into a path of sustainability to avoid severely undermining the living space for our children and coming generations.

Activities in the densely populated and rapidly developing South and East Asian regions cause emissions of gases and particles from incomplete combustion that mixes into reactive and climate-perturbing atmospheric brown clouds (ABC). These cause dimming of the land and ocean surface (decreasing evaporation), warming of the atmosphere, reduces crop yields (food security), changes climatic zones and precipitation, melts the Himalayan glaciers and thus undermines the freshwater supply to billions (water security), and causes massive respiratory diseases, including the premature deaths for several millions each year only in S and E Asia.  This presentation will highlight some of the recent science that is needed to understand both the sources to guide efficient mitigation efforts and to understand and articulate the effects. One emphasis will be on Measurement-Reporting-Verification (MRV) – a key challenge in the post-COP21 era.  Source-diagnostic atmospheric observations offer the opportunity to credibly verify both emission inventories and claims of mitigated emissions.